Rising temperatures are slowing early childhood development

Published in the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, the study reports that children who experienced unusually warm conditions, specifically average maximum temperatures above 86 °F (30 °C), were less likely to reach expected literacy and numeracy milestones when compared to children living in cooler environments.

“While heat exposure has been linked to negative physical and mental health outcomes across the life course, this study provides a new insight that excessive heat negatively impacts young children’s development across diverse countries,” says lead author Jorge Cuartas, assistant professor of applied psychology at NYU Steinhardt. “Because early development lays the foundation for lifelong learning, physical and mental health, and overall well-being, these findings should alert researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to the urgent need to protect children’s development in a warming world.”

Large International Dataset Reveals Clear Patterns

Cuartas and his colleagues examined information from 19,607 children between the ages of three and four from Gambia, Georgia, Madagascar, Malawi, Palestine, and Sierra Leone. These countries were chosen because they provide detailed data on child development, household living conditions, and climate, allowing researchers to estimate the amount of heat each child experienced.

To evaluate development, the team used the Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI), which tracks milestones in four areas: reading and number-related skills (literacy and numeracy), social-emotional development, approaches to learning, and physical development. The researchers combined ECDI information with 2017-2020 data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), which include demographic and well-being indicators such as education, health, nutrition, and sanitation. By merging these datasets with climate records showing average monthly temperatures, they explored potential connections between heat exposure and early development.

Higher Temperatures Linked to Missed Milestones

The researchers found that children who experienced average maximum temperatures above 86 °F (30 °C) were 5 to 6.7 percent less likely to meet basic literacy and numeracy benchmarks than children exposed to temperatures below 78.8 °F during the same season and in the same region. Children in economically disadvantaged households, homes with limited access to clean water, and densely populated urban areas showed the strongest impacts.

“We urgently need more research to identify the mechanisms that explain these effects and the factors that either protect children or heighten their vulnerability. Such work will help pinpoint concrete targets for policies and interventions that strengthen preparedness, adaptation, and resilience as climate change intensifies,” says Cuartas.

This study was co-authored by Lenin H. Balza of the Interamerican Development Bank, Andrés Camacho of the University of Chicago, and Nicolás Gómez-Parra of the Interamerican Development Bank.